Energy Potential In World Special Report

Energy Security In World

• Oil and other fossil fuel depletion (peak oil, etc)
• Reliance on foreign sources of energy
• Geopolitics (such as supporting dictatorships, rising terrorism, “stability” of nations that supply energy)
• Energy needs of poorer countries, and demands from advancing developing countries such as China and India
• Economic efficiency versus population growth debate
• Environmental issues, in particular climate change
• Renewable and other alternative energy sources

     Oil And Other Fossil Fuel Depletion

Many fear that the world is quickly using up the vast but finite amount of fossil fuels. Some fear we may have already peaked in fossil fuel extraction and production. So much of the world relies on oil, for example, that if there has been a peak, or if a peak is imminent, or even if a peak is some way off, it is surely environmentally, geopolitically and economically sensible to be efficient in use and invest in alternatives.

Some may argue (ideologically) that markets will solve this problem. However, markets are good for making profit and allocating resources efficiently for that purpose, but that does not always mean that is good for the environment or for society or for other societies in other parts of the world. Furthermore, in reality markets are not perfect, so even if the theory holds, reality sees a mixture of politics, power play and corruption—even in the most advanced countries.

             Oil And Globalization

• Importing goods from far away depends who it is far from.
• Currently, China seems to be the main manufacturer for the world, and it is far away from Europe and America.
• A decline in American/European (or more generally, the “West”) dominance due to the current global financial crisis, the emergence of a few developing nations, and other related events, may affect their ability to afford that transportation (if alternatives to oil do not emerge quickly enough) and it may affect their ability to participate in a global system (that they helped forge).
• But if other regions develop, they may offset the decline of the “West”.
• In that scenario, it may be the end of globalization for the West, but it may still be some kind of globalization for the rest.

Also interestingly, and perhaps importantly, another implication is that even if there is a decline for some that is somewhat offset by others, the importance of “localization” may emerge, which could mean declining industries in the “West” may also be revived.

 Energy Needs And Demands Of Growing Countries Such As China And India

The western nations form a small percentage of the world population but consume far more resources. Problems such as climate change and energy depletion are thus largely caused by these nations.

However, as China and India also grow rapidly there is a fear that these countries’ demands for energy and resources will very quickly see the world’s natural resources stripped away even more quickly given their large population sizes. Some fear that already we are close to, or are already exceeding, the planet’s ability to replenish itself at a quick enough rate.

Some policies and suggestions therefore point fingers at China and India, that they must address issues such as population growth and be subject to emission reduction targets like the industrialized countries, etc. (And also watch for more defensive reaction from industrialized countries, for example, raising often legitimate issues—though often by vested interests—such as as human rights, corruption, threats of jobs, and so on.)

On the other hand, most developing countries (including China and India) counter that they have a right to development, and they have not been the ones wastefully pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere for as many decades. (This principle was also agreed to by the rich countries, including the US, for example, when discussing the Kyoto protocol to tackle global warming, accepting common but differentiated responsibilities. Developing countries also promised to pursue a path of development that was less wasteful and inefficient as the already-industrialized nations’, one that would be more sustainable.)

       Economic Efficiency Versus Population Growth

Another issue is whether it is population growth or economic choices (patterns of consumption, production, etc.) that drive resource depletion and energy needs. The former implies countries like China and India are major causes of problems, and the latter implies that economic policies, perhaps even fundamental economic ideologies may be major problems. Indeed, many have calculated that depending on how resources are consumed, the number of people the planet can sustain varies significantly.

A population-related argument serves rich country interest by focusing blame or concern of global problems at the developing countries. Arguing that by noting the right to development may appear to defend bad policies that are not sustainable for the environment. Clearly this is not a black and white issue, yet, rarely is the enormous waste of resources in our economic system, even in many industrialized markets, ever discussed.

It is common to hear of concerns about the thirst for energy, the growing number of cars, etc. in China, India and other rapidly developing countries. The concerns are indeed genuine, but rarely are changes to energy usage/efficiently, fuel consumption, or driving habits in the industrialized countries discussed, for it “threatens our way of life” even though that currently (and historically) has caused far more harm to the planet both relative to population size and in absolute terms. Instead, it is easier to blame nations such as China and India that have followed practices ironically encouraged by the industrialized nations.

        Nuclear As A Suitable Alternative To Fossil Fuels?

Although nuclear disasters such as Chernobyl, or geopolitical issues such as Iran are often cause for worry when talking of using nuclear energy, recent years have seen an emergent debate about the potential that nuclear energy offers as a large scale alternative to fossil fuels in a world where energy demands are rapidly increasing.

For some, the risks associated with the technology are too high and renewable energy is far safer, and has high potential. For others, nuclear is seen as either an unfortunate reality that will be essential part of the future mix or an area that has further potential.

When one of the biggest earthquakes on record followed by a devastating tsunami affected Japan in March 2011, some of the older nuclear power reactors at Fukushima suffered what eventually was realized as a nuclear meltdown. Of the numerous issues that the disaster raised, nuclear policy became an issue in many places around the world.

Japan’s nuclear reactors that suffered from the incredibly huge earthquake were the older models. Nuclear experts point out that the newer designs are much more robust. Many are still worried however. Even if newer ones are more robust, if an even more powerful earthquake does occur then are those going to be safe?

Civil society started to debate nuclear power in Japan more. Japan had about 30% of its electricity from nuclear power and had originally planned to increase that to 50%. However, given the growing concerns in the wake of the impacts at Fukushima, in May, Japan announced a change in strategy: abandon plans for half of Japan’s electricity to come from nuclear and instead look to renewables such as solar and wind energy.

But this has also got other regions around the world thinking about their nuclear energy strategies, too. For example,

• Many countries in Europe have been rethinking nuclear policies, Inter Press Service(IPS) notes. Germany in particular (more below). France, more reliant on nuclear power than any other country, has so far felt no need to change its nuclear power policy though anti-nuclear voices are growing louder. There are concerns about the use of nuclear power in seismic zones in some EU countries such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovenia.
• Italy — the only leading industrialized country without nuclear energy — also suspended its previous plans to build new nuclear power plants.
• IPS also noted that the European Union’ announcement that it will be carrying out stress tests on all 143 nuclear reactors in operation in the member countries. These tests could lead to shutting down several nuclear power plants, if needed.
• Germany has been profoundly affected by Fukushima, IPS also adds.
  • After the Japan catastrophe, some 60,000 people gathered in an anti-nuclear demonstration at the oldest nuclear power plant, in Berlin. Many thousands demonstrated on other days, too.
  • Previous ruling parties had decided to phase out nuclear power, but Angela Merkel’s government had always stated it would overrule it if it came into power and it did so last September.
  • Another IPS report notes that a large number of environmental and energy experts have said that Germany could do without nuclear power by the mid 2020s and generate all its electricity needs from renewables by 2050.
  • In mid-March, Germany “stunned” the world when announcing an accelerated phasing out of all 17 German nuclear reactors as an immediate reaction to the Fukushima disaster in Japan. The chancellor now says she wants to slash the use of coal, speed up approvals for renewable energy investments, and reduce CO2 emissions drastically.
  • (Perhaps it is not as surprising as it first seems, as back in 2009 IPS noted thathalf of all Germany’s nuclear reactors had technical problems at some point in July 2009, failing to provide any electricity, but Germany did not suffer any power shortages as it produces more than it uses.)
• France gets 80% of its electricity from nuclear power, more than any other nation in the world. But in the wake of Fukushima, the French press, traditionally a supporter of nuclear power noted that in the previous year alone, there were over 1,000 accidents of different intensity in the France’s atomic power plants.. In addition, several French nuclear power plants are located in seismic zones as the previous IPSstory notes. Given France’s dependency on nuclear power, it defends the use of it for now. Aging power plants are coming under more scrutiny now, however. Some experts there also believe that a combination of turning to renewals, while addressing wasteful and superfluous consumption could help reduce nuclear dependency.
• The US is also beginning to debate if it could handle a similar nuclear disaster. It is a large producer of nuclear power, and for now has put aside calls for a moratorium on nuclear power development in favor strengthening and assuring the public of the safety of its nuclear power plants.
• Philippines President Benigno Aquino has rejected the need for nuclear energy in his country in the wake of the crisis unfolding in Japan. Aquino wants a greater push towards non-nuclear energy sources, according to the Philippines media. The same article also notes that China, Thailand and Indonesia are all being more cautious in light of the events in Japan.

Others, however, are still interested in going ahead with nuclear power as many countries still see it as a way to reduce carbon emissions. Australia, as a major uranium exporter, is therefore keen to capitalize on this continued demand for nuclear power.

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